Skip to main content

About your Search

20121001
20121009
Search Results 0 to 7 of about 8
votes. with obama's way and the configuration points to a romney total of 191. more on that in a second. we have done several rounds of polls since the convention before this week's debate looking at the highly competitive nine states in partnership with polls with nbc news and the wall street journal. let me show you numerically where the recent polls and i emphasize free debate numbers are showing a obama is numerically ahead in each of the nine battleground states although in florida, virginia, north carolina, romney is well within striking distance of each of those. we will be revisiting florida, virginia and ohio to see what impact the debates may have had. these are states obama carried, all of which in 2008, close to or above 50% and each of them as you look at the numbers to some degree reflecting his approval rating and a general improvement in the right direction, wrong direction numbers that have occurred the last several months. the president has enjoyed an unfavorable positive rating in each state. romney's likability score has been more mix. with the exception of virginia,
unforced errors probably more so in the romney column than in the obama column until denver this past week. in the highly polarized e lack or ituate environment. both campaigns have strategically been pealing repealing to the respective political bases. what's been unusual about the election cycle is most voters have picked sides early. we do our polling even as right after the conventions, it looks like the final weekend of the campaign. most voters know who they support. they tell us their they are firmly committed to the candidate and the number of undecided voters has been surprisingly very, very low. single digits. it's not about persuasion. it's more about mobilization both of the conventions were like that. i think in the next three or four weeks we'll see lot more. mobilizes folks to come out because of the early voting which started in so many states. the middle is shrinking. as far as these campaigns are concerned. bash is going to talk about shortly about how there is still a middle to america once you get beyond the campaign labels. but clearly those what drive strategy in camp
and others not criticism for week or two. probably longer. gives him a respite and there could be more questioning about obama's performance among democrats. in the pew study, what seeps in. coverage eventually seeps in and affects mood of swing voters. >> the question becomes, romney had a good night tonight. does that give him momentum where that changes the dynamics of the campaign and come in again the in next debate and build on that and give two more dominant performances? or, do we have the vp debate next week that changes the narrative once again? i think you can expect the president to come in stronger and crisper next time. the president is a fierce competitor. he does not like to lose. so i think we can all assume that he will go back and do many so more debate prep. >> what we'll see from the obama staff and surrogates in their appearances next 20 four hours push this back being a choice between two people. mitt romney moved it back more referendum on the president. we have the official obama spin. this is the literal party line, what they're going to be saying in their tv
that as much in these campaigns? >> guest: campaigns like the obama campaign is smart like that. they do send people out to do the i.t.. in a statistical model in 2008, the obama campaign was basically modeling the electorate in the swing states every week which was to say that they would put out tens of thousands of pay phone calls and all the volunteers doing the talking to the voters and that is all of the data their body for the commercial lenders feeding into these algorithms and every week they come up with a new projection of how each individual would vote and whether they would vote and allowed by the canvassers to talk to people about particular issues, and so, there is less of a need to do all of your identification work individually. it helps to have the volunteer activities. but then one of the shift in the obama campaign this year that they are going to be using the canvas for more for persuasion and not just for the ayittey in his berkeley the campaigns usually thought of it as i used my volunteer to do this sort of a grunt work of going out and asking people who they are going
was back working again within a matter of weeks. and it became evident to me in early 2010 from about a year after obama took office. three things happen. the first was from the united states supreme court. i think no person in the united states i can think of has benefited more from the supreme court of karl rove. two decisions. one in 2000 obviously with bush v. gore put his candidate in the white house and two, in 2010, citizens united decision. that opened the floodgates for contribution -- unlimited contributions. in many cases from secret sources is no transparency with the weather, that is just unprecedented in history. the second thing that happened with michael still running the applicant party instead of running it in to ditch and he couldn't raise the time and it came to his favor early in 2010. you may recall there was a revelation in los angeles that the republican national committee has been entertaining at at a lesbian bondage themed strip club. this did not work well, so they could not raise a dime. this gave for his opening. so he had a luncheon at his house in the we
and that is in the next four and a half weeks, and i'm sure in massachusetts is a good example for the republicans perspective where president obama is clearly going to run very well there. canned scott brown withstand the blue tide fair and right now, the democrats are doing well. you have a tea party backed candidate in indiana, richard mourdock and richard luke are in the primary. that is a very tight race but you have solid republican candidates. i was in missouri may be a month ago but in arizona where democrats are competitive and i think it just shows that one these races are still fluid. you can be and decided and we can say the race for president started with undecided voters yesterday. for some of these voters the senate race, it's going to be a couple of weeks before they really engage. the other thing that is going on here is, i don't know if people vote in races like a chess game but i do think you know, people pick and choose one from a i'll m and one from i obey. clearly one thing we haven't talked about is the fundamental dissatisfaction americans have with government and as they g
? >> i think campaigns like the obama campaign is smart about. you know, they do send people to do ids and those ids feed into their statistical models. in 2008, the obama campaign was basically modeling the electorate in swing states every week, which was to say that they would put out tens of thousands of payphone calls and have all the stuff for volunteers to talk to voters. that data and commercial vendors were feeding into these algorithms and every week they came up with the new projection of how each individual would vote, whether they were so, what issues they cared about. so that allows you to sort of guided canvassers to talk to people about particular issues. and so, there's less of a need to do all of your densification work individually. it helps to have volunteered to the feeding and that the more data points you have, the better predictions will be. one of the shifts will be using their canvassers far more for persuasion and not just for ids. historically campaigns usually thought of it as a use for volunteers to do the work of asking people who they're going to vote for
and they don't start out being an obama proposal or a romney proposal or a democratic proposal. i am interested in exactly what is said in the debate in the next four weeks. whoever wins says in a week or two after the election. that is the time to step up and do the broader leadership and be tougher. >> what would you like to hear president obama singapore after the election? >> your view is as mine is, we are not going to have a deal that doesn't have revenues and spending in the biggest obstacle is on the revenue side and that, as i do believe, i have asked a lot of democratic senators that my perception is correct, and that is that republicans continue to believe that at the end of the day in the 11th hour, democrats will come together as they did in 2011 and 2010. one of the things the president has to do is to make it crystal clear that he is not going to accept a deal that doesn't have both revenues and spending. i think that when that becomes accepting, that is my fear of what we going to january 4. the sooner that is believed, that, to me, raises the predicate for both sides to get a b
Search Results 0 to 7 of about 8